Ukraine: Federalization is National Suicide
March 31, 2014 § Leave a comment
As Russia has already experienced by the breakup of the Soviet Union into a hodge-podge of federal states, federalization is a political nightmare. For Ukraine, it is tantamount to political suicide. To be sure, certain nations, such as the United States of America, are hard-coded as federations while others, such as the Russian Federation, its territories wildly heterogenous in terms of culture, economy, language and religion, can only be kept together as a federation. In comparison, a comparably small nation such as France, Germany or Ukraine, is sufficiently homogenous to exist as a unified, sovereign, state. Ironically, Vladimir Putin is on a crusade to re-forge his crumbling federation into the super-nation of his childhood, the Soviet Union, while arguing the opposite for Ukraine.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander
Federalization of Ukraine, as suggested by Russia, cannot be regarded as anything but a desperate attempt to salvage something from the debacle of the Yanukovich ousting and the desperate gamble of Russia’s Crimean invasion. This suggestion is the last bargaining chip, however, it is a conspiciously weak one. The decision to remodel Ukraine as a federation cannot be made by other states over the heads of the Ukrainian people – it has to be voted through by the Ukrainian parliament on the heels of a nation-wide referendum, which must be presented the case by the Ukrainian government, which, as you may recall, Russia does not acknowledge. To be precise, Russia has already stolen a vital part of Ukraine, Crimea, that needs to be returned to Ukraine before a referendum and federalization process can even begin. The vessel just does not hold water.
Federalization as a long-term strategy for conquest
It is obvious even to the casual observer that federalization of Ukraine would give Russia the opportunity to create a buffer zone of puppet states, through time-honoured manipulation, subversion and ”brotherly” trade agreements, against the inevitable march of western democracy. If such a thing were to pass, it is conceivable that the Russian-speaking minority of the eastern and south-eastern provinces of Ukraine would be strengthened, and other minorities subtly suggested to migrate, over a period of 10-20 years, so as to provide the bedrock of an eventual return to Russia proper by dint of referendums.
Image borrowed from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_ElectionsMap_Nov2004.png