Putin’s Last Resort Before Full Intervention
April 25, 2014 § Leave a comment
I’m hesitant to write this because I don’t want to give Russia any ideas of how it can continue its path of destabilization in Ukraine. Then again, I don’t credit myself with being more inventive than Russia when it comes to state terrorism. Consider this as a warning plain and simple.
Russia, having failed to bring Ukraine to heel with threats, sabotage and subversion, and, having failed to rally enough people to provide a fig leaf excuse for ”peace-keeping” intervention, must surely now be considering what else it can do to further its agenda.
It seems to me, as diagnosed in previous posts on this blog, that Russia is unlkely to launch WWIII. That’s the good news. This is based on the pitiful state of the Russian economy and the bleak outlook of yet further sanction – up to and including a debilitating blockade of its trade, currency, travel and infrastructure. Furthermore, Russia’s vaunted military might is not all it’s been cracked up to be. My opinion is that Russia’s armed force is incapable of sustaining anything more than a very limited territorial grab. The best it can hope for is to remain a very powerful bargaining chip.
Thus, with a weak economy, an impotent military whose use is anyway counter-productive to Russia’s political goal, and with the failure of its bluntly subversive actions in Ukraine, what else can Russia do to stop Ukraine from holding its May 25 election, thereby legitimizing its stature as a free and sovereign state?
It can resort to outright terrorism.
Russia can leverage an anonymous war on Ukraine with all the means available to international terrorism: car bombing, suicice bombing, IED’s, suicidal hostage-taking, kidnapping, hi-jacking, random rocket attacks and general frightfulness ranging from house fires to beheadings.
Following a campaign of quasi-anonymous extremism Russia might have a more believable cause to intervene in Ukraine. The world, however, will know who the real scoundrels are, and will swiftly move to ostracize Russia and hasten its demise.
If such a strategy is chosen, and I hope to all things sacred that this irrevocable journey into the realm of barbarity is not embarked upon, there can be no return of Russia into the league of nations as long as Mr Putin and his cohort is at the helm.