Ukraine: No More Mr Nice Guy

May 6, 2014 § Leave a comment

The development in Ukraine is like watching a horror-movie. You see one of the expendable actors casually moving about the house while a masked murderer is lurking in the cellar, waiting for a moment to strike. You want to reach out and yell ”Don’t go down there! Can’t you see the door is ajar, FFS!” The actor picks up the phone and finds it mysteriously disconnected. Hmm, strange! You yell ”Get the bleep out! Or pick up that cleaver at least!” Nope. And down she goes. Slash. Gore. Shrieks. You sigh and hope that the lead actor will be smarter in the next sequence. End of story.

The events in Ukraine are similarly painful to watch. Russia’s machinations are plain to see. Its agents and proxies are everywhere, breaking every conceivable rule in the book to further Russia’s agenda, yet it is extraordinarily difficult to produce incontrovertible proof of actual state aggression. On the other hand, Russia has openly violated or otherwise ignored every international agreement, treaty and convention from the UN Charter down to the toothless Geneva statement.

An end to plausible deniability
This is part and parcel of Russia’s ”new” assymetrical warfare, wherein plausibly deniable actors wage an undeclared war to deflate Ukrainian (and Western) will to defend its sovereign territory, to destabilize the country and force it to accept a Russian fait accompli. How can Ukraine and the West stop this slow-motion slide down the slippery slope to piecemeal destruction?

Russia has more or less openly shown its scorn and disregard of a tidy international order, it flouts the very idea of accountability. There is no reason to believe that Russia will honor standards of decency and international behaviour that the rest of the world (with some notable exceptions) take for granted. Urging or waiting Russia for to abide by rules, regulations and conventions is utterly vain.

Russia has thrown the book away, and confidently so, knowing that the West will not stoop to her base level – because the West is civilized and governed by actual law while Russia most definitely is not. This is a core imbalance that can only by rectified in a single manner.

The charade stops here
I submit that, in order to safeguard civilization, peace and prosperity for generations to come, Russia must be stopped, and stopped right now, in Ukraine.

The million-dollar question is HOW?

To begin with, the West must become fully awake to the fact that we are now engaged in a global war. The conflict is not limited to Ukraine. Ukraine is the current battleground, however, the stakes are much higher and not confined to that single area.

In this war, as in previous global wars, western civilization must mobilize and come together as one alliance against evil. There is no other way around it. We are indubitably at war. National leaders must rally their populations to this fact. More importantly, global corporations based in the west must be made to understand that commerce with Russia and its outspoken allies is now out of the question – profits and market shares be damned.

Secondly, as Russia has declared rules and conventions null and void through her actions and non-actions, the Western alliance must reciprocate in full. Since Russia does not see fit to comply with international order, the international order must cease to comply with Russia. Accountability is a two-way street – as is non-accountability.

In practical terms this boils down to the following:

  1. Declare Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
  2. Override Russia’s veto in the UNSC and/or reduce her status to non-permanent member.
  3. Sever all but the most basic diplomatic ties with Russia: communicate only via neutral countries such as Switzerland or San Marino.
  4. Immediately dispatch UN peace-keeping force to Ukraine with unlimited mandate for combat, disregarding probable veto from China and Russia (until the latter has been stripped of veto).
  5. Place an embargo on all trade both physical and financial, including civilian goods and services, with Russia.

If this does not halt Russia’s aggression, then proceed to:

  1. Cut off Russia from the Internet.
  2. Disrupt Russian telecommunications through jamming, deflection or destruction of satellites.

Alea iacta est.


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